Our strategies :
- Our investment strategies involve analyzing the Market sentiment as well as the fundamental aspect of the market.
- We use complex Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAMs) to predict stock price movements.
- Heterogeneous agent models are well used in International markets for explaining the dynamic of the market.
- We believe that dividing market participants into Heterogeneous Agents and analyzing types of demand functions is the essential key to predicting stock prices.
- Our out-of sample forecasting power indicates well-performed predictions, resulting in extraordinary returns.
Fundamental price of S&P 500:
- This graph shows the fundamental and real prices of S&P 500 from years 1990 to 2012
- The graph indicates that real prices (solid lines) fluctuate much more than fundamental prices (dotted lines)
- It proves that analyzing the market sentiment is as important as fundamental prices
TSE index forecast (HAM):
- This graph shows our prediction results for the total market index of Tehran Stock Exchange from years 2011 to 2015
- The blue solid line indicates the total index of the market and the red dots show our one-step ahead out-of sample monthly predictions
- As it is shown in the graph, our forecast for the total market index is very similar to the index, having the exact same trend
- In the years 2014-2015, our forecasts have been 80% accurate
The table below shows our returns compared to the index:
Our model has been performing better than the Market Index in the past years. As you can see, we made a 140% profit from our signals in the year 2014 while the annual index growth rate was only 96% in the same year.
Hedging exchange rates:
Exchange rates fluctuate more in Iran compared to Western Countries, thus it is very risky to invest in Iran without having a hedging strategy. Currently our firm is the only investment firm in Iran that has a hedging strategy to minimize the possible risks of investment.
The chart below shows the standardized Rial/Dollar ratio with a red line, and the standardized Euro/Dollar ratio with a blue line:
US Dollar rate forecast (HAM):
This graph shows US Dollar exchange rate fluctuations and our model’s forecast from May 2011 to March 2015.
The accuracy of our forecast has been 73%.