Our strategies :

  • Our investment strategies involve analyzing the Market sentiment as well as the fundamental aspect of the market.
  • We use complex Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAMs) to predict stock price movements.
  • Heterogeneous agent models are well used in International markets for explaining the dynamic of the market.
  • We believe that dividing market participants into Heterogeneous Agents and analyzing types of demand functions is the essential key to predicting stock prices.
  • Our out-of sample forecasting power indicates well-performed predictions, resulting in extraordinary returns.

Fundamental price of S&P 500:

  • This graph shows the fundamental and real prices of S&P 500 from years 1990 to 2012
  • The graph indicates that real prices (solid lines) fluctuate much more than fundamental prices (dotted lines)
  • It proves that analyzing the market sentiment is as important as fundamental prices

TSE index forecast (HAM):

  • This graph shows our prediction results for the total market index of Tehran Stock Exchange from years 2011 to 2015
  • The blue solid line indicates the total index of the market and the red dots show our one-step ahead out-of sample monthly predictions
  • As it is shown in the graph, our forecast for the total market index is very similar to the index, having the exact same trend
  • In the years 2014-2015, our forecasts have been 80% accurate

The table below shows our returns compared to the index:

Our model has been performing better than the Market Index in the past years. As you can see, we made a 140% profit from our signals in the year 2014 while the annual index growth rate was only 96% in the same year.

Hedging exchange rates:

Exchange rates fluctuate more in Iran compared to Western Countries, thus it is very risky to invest in Iran without having a hedging strategy. Currently our firm is the only investment firm in Iran that has a hedging strategy to minimize the possible risks of investment.
The chart below shows the standardized Rial/Dollar ratio with a red line, and the standardized Euro/Dollar ratio with a blue line:

US Dollar rate forecast (HAM):

This graph shows US Dollar exchange rate fluctuations and our model’s forecast from May 2011 to March 2015.

The accuracy of our forecast has been 73%.